Markets Bounce Back – Q2 Quick Update

March 25th, 2011 – 6:09 pm

Stocks and investors have proven to be surprisingly resilient despite a litany of alarming events that have triggered global uncertainty.  It’s amazing that the markets are not lower than they are currently considering…

  • Conflict in the Middle East – Egypt and then Libya
  • Surging oil prices
  • Japanese earthquake and tsunami
  • Subsequent Japanese nuclear crisis
  • Renewed European debt worries
  • Very disappointing home sales in the U.S.

These events have dampened, but not broken investor optimism. The return of skepticism, though, might be a good thing as sentiment measures have dipped to more reasonable levels. Read the rest of this entry »

Special Update – The Impact of Natural Disasters on Foreign Equity Markets

March 16th, 2011 – 12:37 am

The Japanese market was already on its heels when the devastating earthquake and massive tsunami struck on March 11, 2011. And just as the country began to grasp the full extent of the disaster, the explosions in Sendai’s nuclear plants sent the Japanese stock market plunging. In just two days the Nikkei fell 16%.  Wall Street followed loosely, with a drop of 1.7%.

A Historical Perspective

Markets are impossible to predict, but history may help guide our understanding. Our studies of crisis events have demonstrated that after a period of panic-induced weakness, stocks have generally recovered. Read the rest of this entry »

Misleading the Masses.

February 28th, 2011 – 9:11 pm

“Ameriprise sets aside $40M for private placement claims.  Amount equals about 10% of total client losses on Reg D notes later deemed fraudulent by the SEC”

This quote, taken from today’s issue of Investment News essentially means that Ameriprise (American Express Financial Advisors) estimates that they lost their clients $400 MILLION.  Now, you may think, $400 Mil is not that much when compared to the total amount of investment dollars Ameriprise manages for clients, however, I’m thinking of the philosophical implications of these losses…not so much the dollar amounts.

Ameriprise is a company who, like so many other financial services firms, advertises that they’re on the client’s side, 100% of the time.  Not true.  I worked for AMEX Financial Advisors and their business runs the same today as it did when I was there in the late 1990′s.  Internally, the side you don’t see unless you work there, is a meritocracy based on your “production numbers”.  That is, the more revenue you earn from your client’s accounts, the better an advisor you are in the eyes of management.  And the pay can be very lucrative for big producers through innumerable bonuses and payouts.

Guess what products have a great payout when sold?  That’s right!  Privately placed products such as the one’s sold by AMEX financial advisors.

So, as I’ve stated before, investing is not rocket science.  You don’t need private investment vehicles that are expensive, and often times unregulated to make a lot of money in the markets!!  You DO need discipline, common sense, and some decent, non-sales driven financial advice.

Just be aware of the risks involved when dealing with big, multi-million dollar firms who push “products” with commissions, kick-backs, tie-ins, any sort of payout trail, and generally seemingly expensive “financial hooks”.  You can’t go too wrong by remembering that the bigger the cost for an investment generally means that the performance is inferior.

Please call us if you have any question or concern!

Maximize Social Security Benefits

February 25th, 2011 – 7:29 pm

Most people nearing retirement know that if they file for Social Security benefits early, they will receive less than if they wait a few more years. However, it’s worthwhile to review the rules so you don’t make costly, permanent mistakes.

If you can hold out to file until you reach full retirement age, it will be the single best thing you can do to maximize your Social Security benefits.  Still, not everyone understands what the full retirement age is under government rules, or how much money you can receive if they wait a just a little longer.

Read the rest of this entry »

Municipal Bonds – don’t be afraid.

January 11th, 2011 – 8:06 pm

We see two areas of undervaluation in the Municipal Bond Market:

1) Tax-Free Munis: We believe that this excessive sell-off in the municipal market has created a timely and unique opportunity in the muni market. Taking advantage of anomalies in the fixed income market has traditionally been a very successful strategy.  The article discusses the record outflows from bond funds, causing the NAVs to be driven down – the fastest rate in over 2 years.   It also discusses the lighter calendar for municipal new issues in January and how investors who put up with all the selling should be sitting pretty at the beginning of the year.   May be an opportunity – many muni bonds, particularly in the 7-15 year time frame are offering yields over 100% of the Treasury curve, which is cheap.  Below is a link to an article that supports our ideas:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-12-27/investors-seeking-to-dump-bonds-at-record-rate-muni-credit.html

2)  Build America Bonds:  Build America Bonds have been providing some attractive yields.  Build America Bonds (BABs) are taxable munis where the Federal government subsidizes 35% of the interest payments.  Breckenridge (a respected research firm) says that BABs right now are a “no brainer” [as long as investors are comfortable with a contrarian view].  The government ended the BAB program on December 31, 2010, so secondary supply is diminishing.  I think it’s a buying opportunity to pick up yield.  We offer individual bonds as well as a unit investment trust (UIT) of BABs.  The opportunity here may not last.  Here are a couple articles from last month with which we agree, that discuss BABs – one from Bloomberg and one from Investment News about the BAB market and its recent developments.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-17/build-america-boom-set-to-bust-after-busiest-issuance-week-muni-credit.html

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20101215/FREE/101219959

Where is the economy heading? The trend is up but it won’t be fast or easy…

December 10th, 2010 – 6:27 pm

I read this short article sent to me by my friend and a Senior Loan Advisor at Mortgage California, Tom Balk.  In addition to being very knowledgeable about the mortgage and housing markets, Tom is also a great person.  Tom’s contact information can be found at the end of this post…

Evor,

Two weeks ago the reports in the media were about how foreclosures are increasing, rates are rising, new construction is stalling and potential home buyers are scared to make a purchase decision.  Then this past week we see that purchase applications for mortgage loans are up for the 3rd consecutive week by another 1.8%.  In addition, since last week’s reported 10% jump in pending home sales, words like growth and recovery in housing are appearing in the media.  As a 20 year veteran of the real estate and mortgage business this info is crazy!

Read the rest of this entry »