The Social Security 2012 Trustees Report

April 26th, 2012 – 2:53 pm

The Social Security trust fund is expected to exhaust in 2033, three years sooner than projected last year, according to the latest OASDI Trustees Report issued on Monday. At that time, revenues will be sufficient to pay about 75% of promised benefits, down from the 76% projected last year. The annual cost for the OASDI program will exceed non-interest income in 2012, as it did in 2010 and 2011, and remain higher throughout the remainder of the 75-year long-range period. When interest income is taken into account, trust fund assets will grow from the current $2.7 trillion to $3.1 trillion through 2020. Beginning in 2021 the trust fund will begin to diminish until it is exhausted in 2033.
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Hybrid Investments – Neither Fish nor Fowl

February 28th, 2012 – 3:14 pm

My father (also Evor), recently asked a question about an investment that he heard about from Fidelity – which prompted me to this post.  Investors are being flooded by a wave of securities known as “hybrids.” These instruments combine the qualities of debt and equity, and offer an additional return over plain cash. So far, so good; but what are the risks? Read the rest of this entry »

Cracks in the Crystal Ball

February 17th, 2012 – 2:31 pm

One of the mysteries of life in the financial markets is that many people still seem to believe you can build a successful investment strategy around forecasting, despite the road being littered with the corpses of those who got it wrong.  Read the rest of this entry »

When to allow a Greek default

October 10th, 2011 – 1:53 pm

The financial news of the week again is about the eurozone and we are seeing lots of entities come up with lots of possible solutions about how to solve the eurozone problem. They all of course rest on what to do about Greece. The problem is, they are coming from the wrong angle. From STRATFOR’s (the geopolitical researchers) point of view, Greece does not have a particularly bright future as a state before the eurozone crisis is taken into account.

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Social Security a Ponzi scheme?

September 19th, 2011 – 11:22 am

Governor Perry for called Social Security a Ponzi scheme during the Republican debates last week.  Perry: “It [Social Security] is a monstrous lie. It is a Ponzi scheme to tell our kids that are 25 or 30 years old today you’re paying into a program that’s going to be there.”

By getting it out on the table, he gives us a chance to refute this long-held belief that the Social Security system is a scam and doomed to fail.  It is not a Ponzi scheme – here’s why.

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Our Congressional “Non-Solution” to US Debt

August 17th, 2011 – 2:42 pm

Since S&P downgraded U.S. treasury debt, and the administration and others pushed the idea that most of the blame was due to the inflexibility of the Tea Party.  Calling this a “Tea Party downgrade” might be true in one sense.  There weren’t enough members of the Tea Party to overcome the stubbornness of those refusing to make real spending cuts.  On the other hand, Republicans in general were inflexible in terms of increasing revenue (taxes) – running away from the fact that we’ll all have to eventually chip in for the debt problem to actually cool off.

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